2
🇳🇱
Demi Vollering
FDJ-SUEZ
2023 champion
The Yellow Jersey Favourites
Three former champions headline the women's GC battle to Nice.
1
🇫🇷
Pauline Ferrand-Prevot
Visma | Lease a Bike
Defending champion
3
🇵🇱
Katarzyna Niewiadoma
Canyon//SRAM
2024 champion
How the Race May Be Won
These three efforts may decide the yellow jersey, and even a 0.1 W/kg may mean up to a 1 minute gap.
Stage 4 · Dijon ITT
Seconds, not minutes
21 km against the clock with the Lacets de Marsannay in the middle, roughly 28 minutes of racing. It should split the favourites by seconds, and the winner may well carry yellow into Ventoux. It will be a fragile lead.
Stage 7 · Mont Ventoux
The decider
Last year, PFP did 5.5 watts/kg up the Madeleine for 64 minutes. Can she do that again up the Ventoux?
A rider who concedes just 0.2 W/kg here loses nearly two minutes, so any gap from the TT can be erased on the Ventoux.
Stage 9 · Col d'Eze
The ambush
Only 18 minutes of climbing, but at the highest W/kg of the race. Big enough to flip a close GC, too short to bring back a Ventoux blowout. The size of the Ventoux gap decides the tactics of the race and whether it's a battle or a defense.
What a W/kg deficit costs, effort by effort
Estimated time lost to a rival on each decisive effort, from the same physics model as our stage predictions.
| Decisive effort | Duration | Down 0.1 W/kg | Down 0.2 W/kg | Down 0.3 W/kg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 4 · Dijon ITT | ~28 min at 5.3 W/kg | ~15 sec | ~30 sec | ~45 sec |
| Stage 7 · Mont Ventoux | ~53 min at 5.53 W/kg | ~55 sec | ~1:55 | ~2:50 |
| Stage 9 · Col d'Eze | ~18 min at 5.76 W/kg | ~20 sec | ~40 sec | ~55 sec |
Aerodynamics blunt power differences on the flat parts of the time trial. On Ventoux, gravity makes time follow power almost one for one, which is why the same deficit costs three to four times more.
How we estimate it: power = gravity + rolling resistance + aerodynamic drag
(drivetrain corrected), from each climb's length, gradient, altitude and the winner's time. The full equation: P = (m × g × (grade + Crr) + 0.5 × ρ × CdA × v²) × v. Rider
weight comes from procyclingstats, bike at the UCI minimum 6.8 kg. W/kg is on body weight. We are using
physics to derive the power to weight ratios since the power data is not shared publicly, and we are
happy to update our findings should the teams and riders wish to share their power data.
August 1st, 2026
Hilly
Stage 1: Lausanne > Lausanne
6.12W/kg
PREDICTED
~355 watts · Final-punch W/kg · ~7 min
Final climb: Cote Saint-Francois · 2.5 km @ 4.6%
See watts, favorites & the workout →
August 2nd, 2026
Flat
Stage 2: Aigle > Geneva
17.5W/kg
PREDICTED
~1068 watts · 5-second sprint W/kg
Finish: Bunch sprint
See watts, favorites & the workout →
August 3rd, 2026
Hilly
Stage 3: Geneva > Poligny
6.23W/kg
PREDICTED
~361 watts · Final-punch W/kg · ~6 min
Final climb: Cote de Chaux-Champagny · 1.8 km @ 6.4%
See watts, favorites & the workout →
August 4th, 2026
Individual time trial
Stage 4: Gevrey-Chambertin > Dijon ITT
5.3W/kg
PREDICTED
~318 watts · ~1510 W/CdA · Time-trial W/kg
Final climb: Lacets de Marsannay · 2.0 km @ 6.6%
See watts, favorites & the workout →
August 5th, 2026
Hilly
Stage 5: Macon > Belleville-en-Beaujolais
5.9W/kg
PREDICTED
~342 watts · Final-punch W/kg · ~10 min
Final climb: Mont Brouilly · 3.0 km @ 7.0%
See watts, favorites & the workout →
August 6th, 2026
Hilly
Stage 6: Montbrison > Tournon-sur-Rhone
5.87W/kg
PREDICTED
~340 watts · Final-punch W/kg · ~11 min
Final climb: Cote de Boucieu-le-Roi · 3.8 km @ 5.7%
See watts, favorites & the workout →
August 7th, 2026
Mountains
Stage 7: La Voulte-sur-Rhone > Mont Ventoux
5.53W/kg
PREDICTED
~304 watts · Final-climb W/kg · ~53 min
Final climb: Mont Ventoux · 15.7 km @ 8.8%
📈 Strava segment · Mont Ventoux (Bedoin)
See watts, favorites & the workout →
August 8th, 2026
Flat
Stage 8: Sisteron > Nice
17.5W/kg
PREDICTED
~1068 watts · 5-second sprint W/kg
Finish: Bunch sprint
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August 9th, 2026
Mountains
Stage 9: Nice > Nice
5.76W/kg
PREDICTED
~317 watts · Final-climb W/kg · ~18 min
Final climb: Col d'Eze (steep side) · 6.0 km @ 7.6%
See watts, favorites & the workout →
Want to ride like this?
You won't hit 5 W/kg up Mont Ventoux, but you can get measurably faster at your own sprint, climb, and threshold power. FasCat has turned the science into training plans for 20 years.