Three Climbs, Twelve Times
Nobody knows when the winning attack will come in Montréal. Pogačar went with two laps to go in 2024. Last week Seixas waited for the final time up Mount Royal, with 12 km to go. It could just as easily go from 40 km out. What we do know is where it will happen. Every lap of the 13.4 km Mount Royal circuit has the same three climbs and an uphill drag to the line. The elite men ride them twelve times and the elite women eight. So before any prediction, meet the climbs.
Mount Royal
The long one, topping out 11 km from the line. This is where climbers get rid of everyone else.
When the race is on: ~3:40 at 8.0 W/kg
Chemin de la Polytechnique
The steep kicker. It comes straight off the descent, 5 km after Mount Royal, while the legs are still loaded. Too short to ride tempo, steep enough to open a gap. The summit is 6 km from the line.
When the race is on: ~50 s at ~9 W/kg
Côte Pagnuelo
The second kicker and the last launch pad, cresting 3 km from the line. It is the final place to drop a faster sprinter, or to close a gap before the finish.
When the race is on: ~55 s at ~9 W/kg
Then the finish: Avenue du Parc, 500 m at about 3%, an uphill drag that turns any sprint into one more climbing effort. It is a race of attrition. Nobody gets dropped on lap 1. Riders get dropped because every lap takes a little more out of the legs, and then the race explodes.
The Prediction
We pulled the Strava race files from the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal, which has used these climbs since 2010 and this exact circuit last week, and ran them through the same physics model we used for all 21 stages of the Tour de France. We cannot predict which lap the winning attack will come on. We can predict the power the pros will produce on each climb when it does.
An estimated ~515 W held for ~3:40 up the steep 1.6 km of Mount Royal on the ascent that makes the winning selection. That is 2.1× what a fit amateur holds for the same duration.
An estimated ~385 W held for ~4:15 on the same 1.6 km. There is no women's WorldTour race on this climb, so this one is pure model.
Whenever that ascent comes, the two kickers follow it: the Polytechnique in 48 to 52 seconds at roughly 9 W/kg (~560 to 605 W), then the Pagnuelo in about 55 seconds at 9 W/kg again. Whoever is still on the wheel after that sprints up Avenue du Parc for the jersey.
The Course
Fifteen editions of race data on these climbs
The WorldTour has raced these climbs nearly every September since 2010 at the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal, which is why we have so much data on them. For 2026 the GP lap was lengthened from 12.3 to 13.4 km, with a new flat urban section between the Pagnuelo and the finish, so that it matches the Worlds circuit. Last week's race was 16 laps of exactly the lap the Worlds will use.
The four efforts in every lap
| Climb | Numbers | Where | Strava segment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Royal | 1.6 km at 7.7% average | Summit with 11 km to go | Montee Camilien Houde 1.1 million attempts by 32,000 riders |
| Chemin de la Polytechnique | 370 m at 9% average | Summit with 6 km to go | Côte de la Polytechnique Polytechnique, Lower part |
| Côte Pagnuelo | 470 m at 7.8% average | Summit with 3 km to go | Pagnuelo Ave (Climb Only) |
| Avenue du Parc | 500 m at 3% average | Finish line |
Climb 1 · Mount Royal
Pogačar's 3:27 is the benchmark: about 8.5 W/kg
On September 15, 2024, Tadej Pogačar attacked on the second to last lap of the GP Montréal and climbed the segment in 3:27, a VAM of 2,129 m/h, then rode the final lap alone. Our model puts that at ~560 W, 8.5 W/kg. That fits his other short climb numbers from this summer: 8.2 W/kg for 3:25 on the Pertus at the Tour and the 8.7 W/kg it takes to win on La Redoute.
The real demand of this circuit is time above threshold. In 2024 only 5 of Pogačar's 17 ascents were at or above his threshold (the yellow, orange and red bars). Last week, on the Worlds lap, the race was far harder: Seixas rode 9 of his 16 Mount Royal ascents above threshold, plus almost every Polytechnique and Pagnuelo. By our estimate that is about 60 minutes above threshold, all of it in efforts of 1 to 4 minutes. Expect 45 to 60 minutes above threshold from the contenders at the Worlds. This race does not reward one big number. It rewards going over threshold again and again.
Last week's dress rehearsal
Last week Seixas did 7.4 W/kg for 3 minutes and 50 seconds the last time up Mount Royal, and Del Toro did 7.5 W/kg for 3 minutes and 43 seconds on the second to last ascent.
Two ascents back to back at ~7.5 W/kg, on wet roads, 200 km in. That is what the best of the rest can do. Pogačar was 15 seconds faster in the dry, which is a full 1.0 W/kg. That gap is the story of the last three seasons, and it is why this Worlds is wide open.
Climb 2 · Chemin de la Polytechnique
50 seconds at 9 W/kg
Only 370 m, but it averages 9%, and it comes straight off the descent 5 km after Mount Royal. It is a pure anaerobic effort, with the summit 6 km from the line.
| Rider and lap | Time | Est. W/kg | Est. watts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pogačar, 2024 attack lap | 47 s | 9 to 10 | ~650 |
| Seixas and Del Toro, 2026 final lap | 49 s | ~9 | ~605 |
| A normal lap in the bunch | 1:06 to 1:09 | ~6.2 | ~410 |
The fastest numbers are a range because riders carry speed in from the descent. Predicted for the elite women: about 60 seconds at 7.4 W/kg.
Climb 3 · Côte Pagnuelo
55 seconds at 9 W/kg, 3 km from the line
470 m at 7.8%, cresting 3 km from the finish. It is the last place to drop a faster sprinter, or to close a gap.
| Rider and lap | Time | Est. W/kg | Est. watts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seixas and Del Toro, 2026 final lap | 55 s | 9 to 9.5 | ~610 |
| Pogačar, 2024 attack lap | 59 s | ~8.8 | ~580 |
| A normal lap in the bunch | 1:13 to 1:18 | ~6.1 | ~400 |
Last week Seixas and Del Toro rode it faster on the final lap than Pogačar did in 2024. Our prediction: 54 to 58 seconds at roughly 9 W/kg for the elite men, and about 67 seconds at 7.6 W/kg for the elite women.
All Three Climbs Together
The deciding lap: 5 minutes 25 seconds of race winning power
Put the three climbs on one full 13.4 km lap and you can see the whole demand. The elevation is the real thing, taken from the GPS of last week's race on this exact circuit. Each section is colored by the CoachCat training zone it demands on the lap that decides the elite men's race, with the watts per kilo and the watts we predict for each climb. Purple is the descents, where the riders coast and recover.
The deciding lap is three efforts well above FTP with only a few minutes of descending between them: 125% of FTP for 3:40 on Mount Royal, then roughly 140% for 50 seconds on the Polytechnique, then 140% again for 55 seconds on the Pagnuelo, then a sprint. On a normal lap in the bunch the same three climbs cost 5.4, 6.2 and 6.1 W/kg, so the riders arrive at this lap with eleven rounds of sweet spot and threshold already in their legs. It is not the biggest single number that wins in Montréal. It is who can repeat it.
Who This Course Suits
No Pogačar. So who has 8.0 W/kg after 250 km?
With the defending champion out, our prediction sits between what Pogačar did here (8.5) and what the front group did last week in the rain (7.5). Dry roads, new pavement and a rainbow jersey push it up. Sixty more kilometers than the GP pulls it down. We land on 8.0 W/kg for about 3:40 on whichever ascent breaks the race open, with the Polytechnique and the Pagnuelo as the places the elastic finally snaps.
Elite men · Sunday, September 27
- Remco Evenepoel won Sunday's Worlds time trial by 57 seconds, his fourth title in a row. Fifth here last week, but 273 km and a long range move are his terrain
- Isaac del Toro won here seven days ago and has the uphill sprint
- Paul Seixas third in Sunday's Worlds time trial, and made the winning move here last week at ~7.5 W/kg, twice
- Brandon McNulty fourth in Sunday's Worlds time trial, 12 seconds behind Seixas. Third here last week with the fastest Mount Royal ascent of the front group (3:41), and the 2025 winner
- Quinn Simmons fourth here last week, ahead of Evenepoel. A long range attacker on a 273 km course, with McNulty, Jorgenson and Powless giving the USA more cards to play than anyone
Also in the mix: Mathieu van der Poel, Tom Pidcock and Wout van Aert. The lighter the rider, the fewer watts the same W/kg costs, but on a 3:40 effort the big engines can hang on in a way they cannot on an Alpine pass. If van der Poel or van Aert crest the last Polytechnique in the group, the uphill drag on Avenue du Parc is their finish.
Elite women · Saturday, September 26
- Kasia Niewiadoma-Phinney repeated short climbs suit her punch better than one long mountain, and she pushed Vollering deep into the final weekend of the Tour de France Femmes
- Demi Vollering the rider everyone is watching, and the one the race will be ridden against
- Marlen Reusser won Sunday's Worlds time trial for the second year in a row, catching Vollering on the road. The long range threat
- Elisa Longo Borghini third at the Tour de France Femmes and one of the best championship racers of her generation
- Magdeleine Vallières defends her rainbow jersey on home roads
Train These Watts: Find This Workout in CoachCat
- Open CoachCat, in the app on your phone or on the web.
- Tap Library in the menu.
- Search for Montreal.
- Open the Montréal World Championships workout (70 min) and add it to your calendar on the day you want to ride it.
- Send it to Zwift or your Wahoo, or ride it outside. Every interval is already scaled to your FTP.
Not a CoachCat athlete yet? Your first week is free, and the workout is waiting in the library.
It is a race of attrition, so the workout is built the same way: easy to start, very hard to finish. Three steady laps where you save your matches, the Lap 4 selection where the group splits, then the Lap 5 deciding lap from the power profile above, with both kickers ridden as Zone 6 attacks and a sprint to the line.
How to do it
Laps 1 to 3, save your matches. Each lap is 10 minutes. Climb Mount Royal for 4 minutes in your Sweet Spot zone, roll down the descent for 2 minutes in Zone 2, punch up Polytechnique for 1 minute at 104 to 120% of FTP, then settle back into Zone 2 for 3 minutes. Ride these smooth and controlled. If they feel too easy, you are doing it right.
Lap 4, the selection. The pace goes up and the group splits.
- Mount Royal: 2 minutes at Threshold, 97 to 104% of FTP.
- Descent: 2 minutes in Zone 1. Recover fast.
- Polytechnique: a 90 second surge at 104 to 120% of FTP, straight into a 30 second kicker at 120 to 150% over the top.
- Flat: 2 minutes in Zone 2. Hold your position.
- Pagnuelo: 1 minute in Zone 5, 105 to 120% of FTP.
- Downhill to the line: 2 minutes in Zone 2. You hear the bell. One lap to go.
Lap 5, the deciding lap. This is the lap from the power profile. Everything is harder.
- Mount Royal: 2 minutes in Zone 5, 110 to 125% of FTP. A contender rides this at about 8.0 watts per kilogram.
- Descent: 2 minutes in Zone 1. Breathe and get ready.
- Polytechnique: 1 minute attack in Zone 6, 130 to 150% of FTP.
- Flat: 2 minutes in Zone 2. Stay on the wheel.
- Pagnuelo: 1 minute attack in Zone 6, 130 to 150% of FTP. Both kickers are ridden at around 9 watts per kilogram by the riders fighting for the win.
- Descent: 30 seconds in Zone 1.
- Run in: 50 seconds at Threshold to set up the sprint.
- Avenue du Parc: 10 second sprint in Zone 7, 140 to 200% of FTP. All out to the line.
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How We Got These Numbers
Times come from public Strava race files: Pogačar's 2024 GP Montréal win and the 2026 files from Del Toro, Seixas and McNulty. None of them show power, so we convert time to watts with the same model we used for the Tour: gravity, rolling resistance, aerodynamic drag and drivetrain loss. Inputs: 7.5 kg of bike and kit, CdA 0.32 (0.30 for the women), Crr 0.0045, 2.5% drivetrain loss, air density 1.20 at Montréal's altitude, rider mass of 66 kg for Pogačar, 64 kg for the predictions and 58 kg for the women. Riders sitting in a group get 20 to 35% less aerodynamic drag. W/kg is on body weight. On a 7.7% grade gravity is about three quarters of the total, so rider weight barely moves the W/kg, and the biggest uncertainty is the segment's 122 m of elevation gain.
How many watts per kilo does it take to win the Montréal Worlds road race?
We predict about 8.0 W/kg (7.8 to 8.2) for roughly 3:40 on Mount Royal for the elite men, around 515 W for a 64 kg rider, and about 6.6 W/kg (6.5 to 6.8) for roughly 4:15 for the elite women.
How hard is the Mount Royal climb?
It is 1.6 km at an average of 7.7%, with 122 m of gain. Pogačar's 3:27 in the 2024 GP Montréal works out to about 8.5 W/kg.
How hard is the Chemin de la Polytechnique?
It is a 370 m ramp at an average of 9%. The best riders cover it in 47 to 52 seconds on the decisive laps, which takes roughly 9 W/kg.
How hard is the Côte Pagnuelo?
It is 470 m at 7.8%, cresting 3 km from the finish. On the final lap of the 2026 GP Montréal the two leaders rode it in 55 seconds, roughly 9 W/kg.
How many times do they climb Mount Royal?
Twelve for the elite men (273.7 km, 3,803 m) and eight for the elite women (180.4 km, 2,570 m).
Sources:
Want a plan that builds these watts?
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